Category Archives: Politics
So I go to bed having decided to work with JIHADASQUAD in Khanid, and wake up with a new neighbor over in Delve. TEST Alliance. Which more and more seems to be determined to turn into Dreddit and pals. I think it’s safe to say nearly anyone paying any attention expected TEST to git while the gittin’s good. I don’t think Aridia was that high on anyone’s list. The constellation they have chosen is traditionally infested with Russians. There will probably be some skirmishing and bickering with them and the other Aridia locals.
And by that I mean these guys will take every chance to beat up on the sick and feeble parts of TEST. TEST can roam the area and probably put out multiple fleets the locals can’t handle. But can they be everywhere? Can they save themselves from their more moronic members running around like… well… morons and getting themselves killed. Possibly in shiny caps and whatnot.
So on to Khanid, and welcome to our new neighbors. You might want to dig in a bit.
So Mittens has declared that CFC won’t be invading Delve with the goal of killing TEST. At least not for now. They will certainly defend Fountain. They will almost certainly raid Delve. They probably won’t kick TEST out. In that regard I believe myself to be right and Ripard to be wrong. Don’t worry I won’t get used to it. He’s too sharp and too well connected to be wrong very often, I just read my tea leaves a bit better this time.
Moreover, it doesn’t look like CFC will have to lift a finger to make TEST collapse. Their leadership is a raging inferno, awoxers are driving corps out, lack of leadership is driving out others, and there’s so many knives out for TEST that they look like Goons at low tide. All those they’ve wronged, slighted, or who imagine themselves wronged or slighted are ready for revenge. Possibly pre-emptive revenge.
I’m not worried for TEST. This will hurt. Probably a lot. They may travel quite a distance before they hit rock bottom. This wont kill them. TEST is too heavily anchored outside the game to lose out. They share that quality with Goonswarm. It’s not a bad one either. However this meta-invulnerability doesn’t translate to actual invulnerability. They might lose Delve. They will almost certainly lose systems. They are already losing members and corps. Maybe not weeping blood, but losing a lot of cogs from the machine. They’ve lost their cachet as the credible alternative to the CFC. They’ve lost most of their leadership, and frankly they’ve lost their direction. Right now they are in Delve frantically trying to not lose more… everything.
CFC meanwhile just declared Caldari Ice Interdiction time. They are moving on. They have something fun and zany to do to keep the masses busy and keep them from blowing up things they probably shouldn’t. Like shooting sov structures in Delve. CFC has friends, they have victories to rest on, they have activities to keep them busy, and a leadership structure that is humming along keeping everything moving as best as it can.
Goons don’t need Delve. They don’t need the win, and they certainly don’t want to risk breaking momentum shooting structures for another two months. TEST is safe from Goons. They might not be safe from themselves.
So there were two comments out of the 6V fight that I just cannot agree with. The first one is from the normally brilliant Ripard Teg who believes
that there was some kind of back-channel negotiated peace offered by TEST over the weekend… and the CFC rejected it out of hand. I said last week that Fountain has traditionally been the road to an invasion of Delve. Goons have about a 50/50 success rate at invading Delve.
I have to ask: Why the HELL would Goons invade Delve? They have just come out of a lengthy, painful, but successful war. They still have a LOT of structures to shoot, and probably it will be one helluva grind to get rid of the structures involved. Finally there’s claiming such sov as they do want to, mostly to keep TEST from having easy access to the moons that Goons fought to take. Finally: Goons don’t hate TEST. They don’t want to destroy the alliance, they don’t want to salt their fields. They want to go back to the old relationship where there’s two coalitions and they work in concert. Just with more wealth in the Goons pockets. That’s probably not too realistic but it’s a helluva lot more than expecting Goons to find someone ELSE they want to install in Delve and keep watch over.
Second there’s a gem from Gevlon.
The propaganda of TEST bankruptcy will end just as fast as “N3 is destroyed by the sov-dropping director”. TEST can no longer bankrupt. Moons can be taken, members not. As long as there are members loging in, there will be ISK in the chest, therefore there will be SRP. As long as there is SRP, there will be PvP-er to fly them. As the funds increase, more will be available for “get your first battleship for free” or “hourly pay for structure grinders” or free slowcats.
No. What’s more FUCK no. Depending on the wealthy in your corp or alliance to pay for everything is a bad idea. It’s a historically bad idea. Now that’s not saying I don’t practice it myself, but I’m leading a corp with 20 guys. Doing it for an alliance with 500 times that? TERRIBAD. FUCKING TERRIBAD. It’s a band-aid on an amputated arm. It’s one thing to do this for a single war. It’s another to try to make this policy. The idea that “Moons can be taken, members not” is ridiculous. Members don’t have to be taken. They just have to lose interest. They just have to see their hard earned isk wasted by untalented leadership. They just have to leave the corp. That moon will pump out it’s mud as long as you hook a POS up to it. Depending on your members is like betting on the Battlestar Galactica. Rooting for it? Sure. Betting on it? Fuck no. That bitch is going DOWN. The other side has reliable sources of income and replenishment. Galactica has only what it brought with it and what it can scrounge on the way. Take out the Hollywood element and who wins?
So let’s put these together. TEST has a very precarious, undependable strategy that simply begs to fall apart under pressure, looks like a really tempting target, especially after all the fighting that’s already happened right? Not so fast speedy. The main opponents aren’t TEST. They are ennui, boredom, and motivation. Why the hell do Goons want Delve? What is going to keep them interested in fighting hundreds of structures that don’t shoot back, night after night, for months? How will they keep their members in a region SO far from home for a goal that probably doesn’t interest any of them at all?
So my money is on Goons doing no more than harassing TEST. MAYBE taking a staging station or two. Which is good for TEST because anyone who thinks you can win a war by depending on the kindness of strangers is kidding themselves.