Hulkageddon Math

Assumptions:

  1. Average Hulk Destroyed During Hulkageddon:  334.8 Million Isk
  2. Average Covetor Destroyed During Hulkageddon:  51.6 Million Isk
  3. Mining in a Covetor makes 10 million / hour
  4. Mining in a Hulk makes 12 million / hour
  5. 2.48% of active pilots are in Hulks and all Hulks are undocked and active (Q4 2010 QEN, someone get me new numbers!)
  6. 30k pilots are active on average around the clock
  7. EvE-Kill’s Hulkageddon killboard is fundamentally accurate.

Get ready for Maths.  Mining in a Covetor for 24 hours is worth 240 Million – (% chance of losing your ship) * (Value of your ship).  For a Hulk it’s 288 Million -(% chance of losing your ship) * (Value of your ship).  Let’s plug in the known numbers.

  • 240-x%(51.6) for a Covetor
  • 288-x%(334.8) for a Hulk
744 Hulks are flying around the clock according to my assumptions.  432 Have been killed in the 15 days since Hulkageddon started.  That means that each day 28.8 Hulks have died.  That’s 3.87% plug in the numbers (assuming the rate is the same) and you get
  • 238 million isk / day for the Covetor
  • 275 million isk / mining day for the Hulk
Now these numbers aren’t terribly accurate, the amount made per hour is probably fairly close to what a smart miner can make with his pride and joy, and the difference in rate certainly is accurate, but the big problem is the number of ships undocked.  Let’s assume that the isk/hour is right as is the rate differential.  Now we figure out the break even point.  I’ll save you the formulas and tell you I came up with 15.5% So if 15.5% of mining ships died during the course of their mining day a Covetor would be worth the same as a Hulk.
Remember where I assumed every single Hulk was mining actively if it was logged on?  Let’s drop that assumption.  Let’s say only 1/3 of online Hulks are mining.  The others are AFK, hiding, spinning, whatever.  11.6% have died.  Doing Math again:
  • Covetor yields 234 million isk/mining day
  • Hulk yields 249 million isk / mining day
Conclusions:  Mining in a Hulk during Hulkageddon is still a profitable venture overall compared to mining in a Covetor.  Gankers haven’t done enough damage to make mining in a Hulk unprofitable.  In order to create a situation where a Hulk undocking to mine loses money on average compared to a covetor, the odds of killing it have to be 15.55% of all hulks killed.  To make it worth 0 isk to undock, something over 90% of Hulks undocking would have to be killed at some point in their day.

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About Corelin

An Eve playing Fool who occasionally writes about the shenanigans he and his minions get up to.

Posted on May 13, 2012, in Hulkageddon, Meta, PvE, PvP. Bookmark the permalink. 4 Comments.

  1. Serpentine Logic

    Phew, good thing all those hulk pilots mine 24/7.

    • Where did I say anyone was mining 24/7? I stated the odds based on 24 hours of mining. It doesn’t have to be consecutive, it was just easiest to calculate based on the statistics I had for Hulks being killed on eve-kill.

  2. mining in a hulk is unprofitable from a psychological point of view – as soon as you get ganked, it feels bad, it feels that all the time you spent grinding rocks is wasted.

    Hence, just don’t mine, and do something else, or tank it so hard that hulk no longer mines like a hulk. At this point, you’re better off mining in a battleship with 8 lasers.

  3. I make a bit over 5 billion mining in high sec per week. For all the years of this event, yesterday is the first time a ganker even visited a belt I was in. He left unfulfilled. Doesn’t seem unprofitable to me, and it’s not worth stopping because of a potential gank.

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