I Was Right. I Think
So Mittens has declared that CFC won’t be invading Delve with the goal of killing TEST. At least not for now. They will certainly defend Fountain. They will almost certainly raid Delve. They probably won’t kick TEST out. In that regard I believe myself to be right and Ripard to be wrong. Don’t worry I won’t get used to it. He’s too sharp and too well connected to be wrong very often, I just read my tea leaves a bit better this time.
Moreover, it doesn’t look like CFC will have to lift a finger to make TEST collapse. Their leadership is a raging inferno, awoxers are driving corps out, lack of leadership is driving out others, and there’s so many knives out for TEST that they look like Goons at low tide. All those they’ve wronged, slighted, or who imagine themselves wronged or slighted are ready for revenge. Possibly pre-emptive revenge.
I’m not worried for TEST. This will hurt. Probably a lot. They may travel quite a distance before they hit rock bottom. This wont kill them. TEST is too heavily anchored outside the game to lose out. They share that quality with Goonswarm. It’s not a bad one either. However this meta-invulnerability doesn’t translate to actual invulnerability. They might lose Delve. They will almost certainly lose systems. They are already losing members and corps. Maybe not weeping blood, but losing a lot of cogs from the machine. They’ve lost their cachet as the credible alternative to the CFC. They’ve lost most of their leadership, and frankly they’ve lost their direction. Right now they are in Delve frantically trying to not lose more… everything.
CFC meanwhile just declared Caldari Ice Interdiction time. They are moving on. They have something fun and zany to do to keep the masses busy and keep them from blowing up things they probably shouldn’t. Like shooting sov structures in Delve. CFC has friends, they have victories to rest on, they have activities to keep them busy, and a leadership structure that is humming along keeping everything moving as best as it can.
Goons don’t need Delve. They don’t need the win, and they certainly don’t want to risk breaking momentum shooting structures for another two months. TEST is safe from Goons. They might not be safe from themselves.