Reading Tea Leaves
Posted by Corelin
Tomorrow is Crucible. Tomorrow the fruits of the labors CCP has been making for months are revealed. Tomorrow EvE changes again.
The patch noted can be found here. Many other bloggers are proclaiming gloom and doom, especially with regards to two things: POS Fuels and Suicide Ganking.
I’m going to take on suicide ganking first. Hulkageddon will be epic. A tornado or two will kill any hulk I’ve seen and will be only a bit more expensive than a brutix. I doubt there will be a hulk or even a retreiver undocked in highsec within 24 hours of the start of Hulkageddon. Orcas and Freighters aren’t safe either. Some bright minds have figured you can kill a freighter for about the cost of a freighter hull. I suspect that freighter ganks will become more and more common and that autopiloting freighters will be a thing of the past if they have anything worthwhile in the cargo. However there will always be ways to move things throughout Empire.
The advent of Player Owned Customs Offices is being decried as the death knell of PI in lowsec. People as respected as Mord Fiddle and Rixx Javix are proclaiming that they sky is falling and that the price of PI goods and the resultant POS fuels will skyrocket as players greedily restrict access to their Customs Offices to make a few isk. This would be a case of stepping over dollars to make pennies. If I had a Lava or Plasma planet in lowsec I would open that fucker up. I’d make sure anyone that wanted to use it knew exactly who to get a hold of to arrange access and I’d make damn sure to check my wallet a few times a week to watch the fucker fill up. PI is boring and I don’t care to do it. If someone else wants to make money for me by doing it I would be thrilled and delighted. I want the population of Jita to come to my system do PI and pay me to do it. Yes there will be ganks, but these already happen. Yes there will be some inefficiency in the market due to the taxes, but I rather doubt that lowsec PI moguls make up the majority of pos fuels in EvE. Nullsec would certainly outweigh them and even wormholes would have a very strong presence in the market over and above what highsec offers, even as limited as highsec PI is from a moneymaking standpoint.
Yes the offices are easily assaulted, reinforced or even destroyed, but there are entities in lowsec with the capability to defend them. Heck there’s R64 moons and even the odd Tech moon in low. Yeah they tend to belong to the big boys from Null but a few trickle down to pirates who have settled in for a bit. You think a lava planet, or a plasma planet might not look like something worth holding to some calmer, more settled pirate as an asset? It’s not difficult for a carebear to keep an alt in system near his planets to peek in and see if his favorite customs house is available.
To me the most interesting outcome in industry will be in the areas of mining. With ganking becoming even easier now, it will be quite possible to find it exceedingly difficult for miners in belts to function anymore. While highsec mining may not be the biggest, or even a top-three contributor to the source of minerals in EvE, if an entity like goons or gankers in general took it upon themselves to sweep the belts clean for a few weeks I am rather certain that Trit/Veld prices could easily spike quite a bit in the short term.
Finally, get ready to see lots of grey-green ships in lowsec. More easily fit, more agile blaster ships supported by the simpler to use Oneiros will begin to surface more and more to fight for king of the hill status with the ubiquitous Hurricane gangs. I’ve already been looking at some fun fits for the brutix, and some really scary ones for the Proteus.
EvE will change. Carebears will whine. PvPers will pay more and more, and make more and more off the high-end income sources that are becoming more and more prevalent. In the long-term the effects of all these isk faucets will run into the ease with which the bounty of New Eden can be destroyed and inflation will start to rise. It has already struck the Plex market. Hard. I doubt that the prices for Plex will go too much lower than the new ~475 million isk they are sitting at now. Between incursions, wormholes, and L4 missions there’s simply too many ways to make money to allow prices to sink any. In addition players are getting older faster than new players come in. These older players consume more and more high-end resources, especially Plex and this will cause prices for Plex, T2/T3, Faction and Capital ship assets to continue to rise while it is quite possible that some “Noob” items sink in price, ships like Caracals, and Stabbers, Fittings modules, like PDS and the like.
It will be an interesting year in New Eden. The fires of Crucible are here. Winter has come and now we will see what their meeting brings.