Category Archives: Nullsec
So Mittens has declared that CFC won’t be invading Delve with the goal of killing TEST. At least not for now. They will certainly defend Fountain. They will almost certainly raid Delve. They probably won’t kick TEST out. In that regard I believe myself to be right and Ripard to be wrong. Don’t worry I won’t get used to it. He’s too sharp and too well connected to be wrong very often, I just read my tea leaves a bit better this time.
Moreover, it doesn’t look like CFC will have to lift a finger to make TEST collapse. Their leadership is a raging inferno, awoxers are driving corps out, lack of leadership is driving out others, and there’s so many knives out for TEST that they look like Goons at low tide. All those they’ve wronged, slighted, or who imagine themselves wronged or slighted are ready for revenge. Possibly pre-emptive revenge.
I’m not worried for TEST. This will hurt. Probably a lot. They may travel quite a distance before they hit rock bottom. This wont kill them. TEST is too heavily anchored outside the game to lose out. They share that quality with Goonswarm. It’s not a bad one either. However this meta-invulnerability doesn’t translate to actual invulnerability. They might lose Delve. They will almost certainly lose systems. They are already losing members and corps. Maybe not weeping blood, but losing a lot of cogs from the machine. They’ve lost their cachet as the credible alternative to the CFC. They’ve lost most of their leadership, and frankly they’ve lost their direction. Right now they are in Delve frantically trying to not lose more… everything.
CFC meanwhile just declared Caldari Ice Interdiction time. They are moving on. They have something fun and zany to do to keep the masses busy and keep them from blowing up things they probably shouldn’t. Like shooting sov structures in Delve. CFC has friends, they have victories to rest on, they have activities to keep them busy, and a leadership structure that is humming along keeping everything moving as best as it can.
Goons don’t need Delve. They don’t need the win, and they certainly don’t want to risk breaking momentum shooting structures for another two months. TEST is safe from Goons. They might not be safe from themselves.
So there were two comments out of the 6V fight that I just cannot agree with. The first one is from the normally brilliant Ripard Teg who believes
that there was some kind of back-channel negotiated peace offered by TEST over the weekend… and the CFC rejected it out of hand. I said last week that Fountain has traditionally been the road to an invasion of Delve. Goons have about a 50/50 success rate at invading Delve.
I have to ask: Why the HELL would Goons invade Delve? They have just come out of a lengthy, painful, but successful war. They still have a LOT of structures to shoot, and probably it will be one helluva grind to get rid of the structures involved. Finally there’s claiming such sov as they do want to, mostly to keep TEST from having easy access to the moons that Goons fought to take. Finally: Goons don’t hate TEST. They don’t want to destroy the alliance, they don’t want to salt their fields. They want to go back to the old relationship where there’s two coalitions and they work in concert. Just with more wealth in the Goons pockets. That’s probably not too realistic but it’s a helluva lot more than expecting Goons to find someone ELSE they want to install in Delve and keep watch over.
Second there’s a gem from Gevlon.
The propaganda of TEST bankruptcy will end just as fast as “N3 is destroyed by the sov-dropping director”. TEST can no longer bankrupt. Moons can be taken, members not. As long as there are members loging in, there will be ISK in the chest, therefore there will be SRP. As long as there is SRP, there will be PvP-er to fly them. As the funds increase, more will be available for “get your first battleship for free” or “hourly pay for structure grinders” or free slowcats.
No. What’s more FUCK no. Depending on the wealthy in your corp or alliance to pay for everything is a bad idea. It’s a historically bad idea. Now that’s not saying I don’t practice it myself, but I’m leading a corp with 20 guys. Doing it for an alliance with 500 times that? TERRIBAD. FUCKING TERRIBAD. It’s a band-aid on an amputated arm. It’s one thing to do this for a single war. It’s another to try to make this policy. The idea that “Moons can be taken, members not” is ridiculous. Members don’t have to be taken. They just have to lose interest. They just have to see their hard earned isk wasted by untalented leadership. They just have to leave the corp. That moon will pump out it’s mud as long as you hook a POS up to it. Depending on your members is like betting on the Battlestar Galactica. Rooting for it? Sure. Betting on it? Fuck no. That bitch is going DOWN. The other side has reliable sources of income and replenishment. Galactica has only what it brought with it and what it can scrounge on the way. Take out the Hollywood element and who wins?
So let’s put these together. TEST has a very precarious, undependable strategy that simply begs to fall apart under pressure, looks like a really tempting target, especially after all the fighting that’s already happened right? Not so fast speedy. The main opponents aren’t TEST. They are ennui, boredom, and motivation. Why the hell do Goons want Delve? What is going to keep them interested in fighting hundreds of structures that don’t shoot back, night after night, for months? How will they keep their members in a region SO far from home for a goal that probably doesn’t interest any of them at all?
So my money is on Goons doing no more than harassing TEST. MAYBE taking a staging station or two. Which is good for TEST because anyone who thinks you can win a war by depending on the kindness of strangers is kidding themselves.
So for those of us living insulated lives in Empire, or even the less interested parts of Nullsec, there’s a lot of Schadenfreude regarding Z9PP. There’s lots of facts, there’s lots of conjecture, and there’s lots of butthurt. I want to talk about what this means for the war. Moreover I want to talk about what it COULD have meant.
Over 100 carriers and some Blap Dreads were trapped on the field, apparently more or less doomed “Eventually” to an ugly death. I doubt that even skating to downtime would have saved them depending on when the last bubbles dropped and how fast CFC logged back in.
Reinforcements were apparently almost entirely in CFC’s favor. This is an ugly situation for Test to be in. CFC had the ability to slowly start eliminating Test carriers and once that got started the snowball likely would have been fast. Test was in trouble and they knew it.
At this point the bit of blind screaming luck that can change the course of empires shows up. Namely the hand of a CCP engineer. We’ll call him CCP Johnny
Johnny is in a hurry, and rather than moving other systems off the server in question, he moves the IMPORTANT system. Johnny is probably related to Tuxford but that’s not important now. The result is the system goes down long enough that the carriers get to log off, and stay off long enough to GTFO. Test got out of a major crisis with very little actual harm. Here’s how I see things happening with 4 paths of outcomes.
First off let’s assume that somehow Test manages to get away somehow. Coasting to DT, PL coming up with something amazing even for PL (Yes I can read Kugu, I’ve read the AAR there, it’s good) CFC completely falling apart, whatever. HUGE morale boost for Test. MASSIVE. Getting their balls into the bear trap then pulling them out even remotely intact would give them something to chestbeat about for a while. Seriously, it would be an amazing bit of leadership for them. The odds of this are REALLY low I’d think, but possible.
Second let’s go the other way. Test’s fleet is utterly whelped and the CFC turns out to be completely right, the fleet turns out to be the skyscraper that breaks the camel’s back, neck, legs and spleen. Morale crashes through the floor so fast the floor doesn’t even notice and Test is thrown WAY back in the campaign even as Goons morale soars. Goons get to move the line in Fountain, moons, stations, whatever they want, as far as they can and start to build Sov time towards expanding the all-important jump bridge network. The war isn’t over, but the momentum would be entirely in Goon’s hands.
Next we’ll look at a Test whelp that is mostly handled by the SRP fund. Test manages to handle most of the critical losses, and keeps their fleet in the field. This is rather more likely, even if I think it would be a huge strain on their resources. Goons morale still soars, but without the catastrophic crash to Test morale CFC cannot grab the momentum with both hands and seize control of the warzone.
Now we’ll look at Test getting beaten, but not whelped. This would require Test to lose a significant number of ships, yet still hold together well enough to GTFO even as their losses begin to cascade as fewer and fewer reps are available to land on any remaining ships. Once the carriers started popping the popping was going to keep going. Accelerating and finally outright snowballing. This would have been bad, but far less of a strain than being crushed and even if the SRP fund is marginal it should be able to absorb the loss. This also would have given Test a “Bloody but unbroken” chance to wave the banner.
What we have instead is a thoroughly unsatisfying disaster. CFC has been robbed of the chance to really dig their claws into an utter victory. They most likely would have finished it off, but even if they had failed they’d know for sure what happened. They wouldn’t be left with this frustrating, infuriating sense of being robbed. Test on the other hand has scored a “victory” that they cannot trumpet, that they cannot celebrate, that they can only acknowledge (but probably not humbly) The glass is half full (of carriers actually) but it is ungarnished, simple and stark. They got their carriers, but they also have no answers. They cannot prove their SRP is healthy, they cannot chestbeat about their impossible victory, or even snatching a draw from the teeth of a crushing defeat. They cannot commiserate about a tough loss against long odds. They can only sprint back to safety and marvel at their stunning escape.
Goons will be mad. They will continue to strike. They will attempt to hammer Test again, and try to draw their slowcats into another fight where they can hit them again like they did this time. Test will attempt to come up with a better method of extracting this fleet, and of defending it. Test morale will be down, but more “funky” than depressed. They know their best fleet got beaten, and only the invisible hand of fate saved it. CFC morale will be up, edgy and angry knowing that a deserved victory was snatched from them, and possibly a victory far beyond merely what was on the field.
A good doctrine wins fights. A great doctrine doesn’t have to fight them (an AWSOME doctrine gets fights that you will win anyway!) Tonight I was on the good end of a great doctrine. The Goonswarm Techfleet + Fuckyoufleet doctrine is kind of a goulash of shit you don’t want to face. I’m sure there’s a few counters that could totally ruin it, and a couple counters for PART of the fleet come to mind, but there’s just so much of so many things FC’s hate to deal with so much that it’s kinda hard to get a fight with it. I’ve gone out with it twice and our biggest enemy has been boredom. But enough of that, who wants to see the fleet comp that could buy a titan?
Was it fun? Sure! Did we do a whole lot? No. We won a fight because our enemy refused. There’s a timer involved and you can bet your behind we will come again and see if our opponents managed to come up with a good counter.
This isn’t a “fair” doctrine, this isn’t a fleet you bring in the hope of getting a “goodfite” this is a fleet you bring to show domination of the field, and to force your will on an opponent. Between the buffers, the reps, and the crippling effects of a Fuckyoufleet, this isn’t a fleet you expect to see getting whelped too much. Will it happen? Sure, because: Goons. But they can afford to whelp it. It’s not called “Techfleet” for nothing.
I enjoyed this fleet. Formup was surprisingly quick and efficient, it was clear that things were being handled well, including partitioning off sensitive communications areas. There’s spais everywhere, keeping information segregated according to “Need-to-know” makes sense and works well for a command team like goons. We moved out fairly quickly, but not without some problems, and arrived at our rally point read to move. Sadly our opponents wanted no part of this fleet and simply waited out to see if there were any opportunities we’d grant them by making a mistake. It didn’t happen so we figured for the timer, announced the next fleet and flew home.